India stock market
The Indian stock market outlook for 2024 is mixed, as there are various factors that could influence its performance.
Can the Indian stock market continue to rise in 2024?
Some of the positive factors are:
- India’s economy is expected to grow by 6.4% to 6.7% in 2024, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
- Private consumption, private investment, government policies, and infrastructure development will drive the growth.
- The Sensex is forecast to reach a lifetime high of 64,318 by end-2023 and 65,974 by mid-2024.
- Experts anticipate another pre-election rally in India’s equity markets as the country prepares for General Elections in six months.
- Morgan Stanley expects a further 10% rise in Indian benchmark indices ahead of the 2024 general elections, driven by the anticipation of continuity and a majority for the ruling party.
Some of the negative factors are:
- Global slowdown, tight monetary conditions, elevated oil prices, and geopolitical uncertainties could pose challenges for India’s growth and market sentiment.
- There is scepticism about what happens in the general election, as some of the state elections may not go the ruling party’s way. The market will start getting worried about the outcome for May 24 elections and the risks and uncertainties would be reflected in the valuations2.
- The tech sector, which is a major contributor to the market, is facing headwinds due to the global chip shortage, rising competition, and regulatory issues2. The commentary of the tech sector is much awaited to see whether it will get worse before it gets better, or this is the trough quarter1.
Therefore, the Indian stock market could continue to rise in 2024, but it may also face some volatility and correction depending on the evolving situation. Investors should be cautious and selective in their portfolio allocation and diversification.
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